The Spanish energy market is at a time of profound transformation, driven by factors such as the energy transition, the growing demand for renewable energy and the volatility of fossil fuel prices.

In this article, we analyse the main trends and most relevant forecasts for the electricity and gas sector in Spain in 2025, offering you a complete and updated view of the situation.

Electricity market: Towards a renewable energy future

The rise of renewable energy

Spain is taking leaps and bounds in the transition to clean energies. It is expected that by 2025, around 42% of the energy consumed in the country will come from renewable sources. This significant advance is already reflected in data from 2024, where renewables generated 56% of the Spanish electricity mix, with an increase in production of 11% compared to the previous year.

But what is the energy mix?

A country's energy mix is the combination of energy sources that are used to meet the energy demand of its population, industries and services. This concept includes both primary sources (those that are obtained directly from nature) and secondary sources (derived from the transformation of primary sources). A balanced energy mix is crucial for ensuring sustainability, security of supply and economic competitiveness.

Changes in the energy mix

La solar photovoltaic has surpassed the combined cycle for the first time, positioning itself as the third most important energy source in Spain. La wind power leads the mix with 23% of production. These changes reflect the rapid evolution of the sector towards more sustainable sources.

El combined cycle, which combines a gas turbine and a steam turbine to generate electricity with greater efficiency, takes advantage of the waste heat from the combustion of natural gas to produce steam and generate additional energy, achieving electrical efficiency of up to 60%. Despite its high efficiency and flexibility, this technology is gradually being replaced by renewable sources in the Spanish energy mix.

Forecasts for the energy market in Spain for 2025

The energy landscape in Spain for 2025 presents significant challenges, both in the electricity and natural gas markets. The following are the main forecasts and factors that will influence both sectors:

Electricity market

• Increase in the electricity bill: By 2025, it is expected that global increase of 13% in the electricity bill, mainly driven by a 40% increase in electricity system charges. This adjustment, which affects both residential and industrial consumers, responds to the need to reverse the reductions applied in 2021 to mitigate the energy crisis, according to data from EPE and Konery. However, let's remember that it is essential to accurately determine the electrical power that your business needs to avoid overloads in the electrical grid, power outages or overcosts.

• Implementation of prices every 15 minutes: Starting in 2025, the Spanish electricity market will adopt a European regulation that will establish electricity prices every 15 minutes, instead of the current 24 time slots. This change seeks to reflect more precisely the variations in energy supply and demand.

Natural gas market

• Maintaining high prices: Despite some stabilization in 2023 and 2024, natural gas prices are expected to remain high until 2025, due to market volatility and price levels higher than historical averages in Europe and Asia.
• Increase in LNG production capacity: It is expected that, before 2025, approximately 200 bcm (1 billion cubic meters) of Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) production capacity will be added worldwide, which could influence gas supply and prices.
• National Extraction Projects: In Spain, projects such as Sotés's, in La Rioja, they seek to increase domestic natural gas production, with significant investments aimed at drilling new wells and increasing daily extraction capacity, contributing to the security of energy supply.

General perspectives

• Moderate recovery of electricity consumption: The National Commission on Markets and Competition (CNMC) forecasts an increase in electricity consumption of 1.3% in 2025, although with possible scenarios of a decrease of 0.4% or increases of up to 3.5%, depending on various economic and demand factors.
  
• Impact of renewable energy: The integration of renewable energies is expected to continue its progress, contributing to greater competition in the market and potentially reducing electricity prices in the medium and long term.
  

In short, the year 2025 is shaping up to be a period of significant adjustments in the Spanish energy sector, with expected increases in electricity and natural gas costs. Adapting to these changes will require strategies focused on energy efficiency and greater adoption of renewable sources to mitigate the economic impact on consumers and businesses.